1) Will there be a changeup in the Eagles’ primary coverages?
In the Vic Fangio-style defense, the coverages you get are predictable. Fangio will play a zone-style defense on early downs, starting with two deep safeties and cornerbacks playing off coverage. He’ll rotate each safety interchangeably, but you know you’re always going to get zone coverage with the intention of keeping things underneath and generating long third downs. On third downs, Fangio will mix it up with more man coverage and five-man pressures, but even then, it’s never the most exotic pressure you’ll see.
What has always made this style of defense work is that Fangio’s gamble is that by conceding 3-4 yards per play, you’re eventually going to make a mistake. Whether it’s a lousy run play, an offensive lineman blowing protection, a drop, a misthrow or a miscommunication by the quarterback, one mistake against this style of defense sets you back into third and long, where the Eagles; talent takes over, and it’s hard to thrive.
However, what I find interesting about this game is that it is the exact way the Chiefs want to play. This season for Kansas City has not been about their ability to generate explosive plays but methodically picking up five or six yards a play and keeping themselves in positive down-and-distances. If Fangio concedes that airspace and yards are important to the Chiefs, we will have an entire season of film to suggest that the Chiefs are comfortable playing that style.
So, my question is this: does Fangio change his gameplan?
Fangio is a smart enough coordinator to watch the Chiefs’ offense and understand how they operate, so could we win a gameplan-specific change by him? To me, that would involve more man coverage across the board. The Eagles have talented cornerbacks. They’re well-coached and work across a variety of matchups. I would wager they could feel comfortable playing more man coverage against the Chiefs’ weapons, who aren’t great at separating by themselves.
If the Eagles are committed to playing more man coverage, I think it becomes a matchup game for the offense. Their cornerbacks are hard to beat one-on-one, but you can get a favorable matchup on their safeties or linebackers. Reid is one of the best at using motion to isolate a defensive player in a poor matchup, and he should look to do that this week. Using Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in certain motions to get the right matchup could get the Eagles’ defense scrambling.
2) How will the Chiefs’ interior offensive line hold up vs. the Eagles?
For this entire season, the question going into every game is, “How will the Chiefs’ tackles hold up this week?” However, when I was thinking about the Eagles matchup, I felt good about the tackle matchups this week. Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor — particularly Thuney — aren’t great at withstanding power rushers who cave the pocket in, but that’s not the style of rusher the Eagles have. Nolan Smith has improved dramatically in Year 2, but he’s primarily a speed rusher that relies on his explosiveness and bend to win. Josh Sweat has always relied on those aspects as well. For the Chiefs tackles and with how Mahomes navigates the pocket, I think they will be fine against their edge rushers.
Where the Eagles’ pass rush is strongest is their interior defensive line. Jalen Carter has emerged as the best defensive tackle besides Chris Jones in the NFL. Everyone who watched Carter at Georgia knew he had every single trait you want out of a defensive tackle — he can dominate with quickness, agility, strength, and technique. Carter also never leaves the field and has the motor to dominate for four quarters. Carter almost always aligns over the right guard, so Trey Smith is going to have a battle one-on-one against Carter, which is going to be awesome to watch.
The Eagles also have another good interior pass rusher: Milton Williams. You might look at Williams’s stats and see he only had five sacks all year, but he’s been dynamic as a pass rusher. Coming into the NFL, Williams was a bundle of elite athletic tools. He had superb explosiveness and speed. Now, in Year 4, he’s put that all together well and added a power element to his game. Williams is going to get paid a lot of money this offseason. He’ll align with Mike Caliendo, which will be a handful for him. Nose tackle Jordan Davis has continued to improve this season, albeit he is still primarily a run defender.
The Chiefs’ interior will be called upon to be great again this week. I have plenty of evidence of their ability to do that, but against this specific defense, that will play a large part in determining the winner.
3) What scrambling lanes will Mahomes find in this game?
This relates to point 1, but in every Super Bowl, Mahomes’ biggest plays usually come down to his scrambles. In high-leverage situations, Mahomes always finds the lanes that break the defenses back and get the Chiefs going. For the Chiefs to win this game, Mahomes must do that again.
My question is, how will that happen? This comes down to how Fangio plays Mahomes. If they play more zone coverages, it’ll be difficult for Mahomes to find lanes with vision from the defenders on him. Without their backs turned, they can rally to the ball. If that happens, Mahomes will have to win within the pocket. If he bails, it will be interesting to see the discipline of the Eagles’ defense to stick with receivers as Mahomes presses the line of scrimmage and is always a threat to throw late.
If it’s man coverage, it will be easier for Mahomes to find lanes. With their backs turned, Mahomes can easily navigate traffic and make a linebacker miss.
The Eagles are also a disciplined pass-rush unit. Their edges can both get upfield and prevent Mahomes from getting left or right. Smith and Sweat are fast and can pursue. Williams and Carter can win in any way as a pass rusher, so I do worry the pockets will be tight for Mahomes at times. He’s good enough to navigate that, but if the Eagles can limit his scrambles, their pass-rush integrity will be a large part of it.
The key part for scrambling is that it only has to be one or two times. One or two mistakes by the Eagles pass rush, and Mahomes can make it work. He’ll have to be ready for those situations to take advantage.