The 2025 MLB season is only a few weeks old, but the league already looks considerably different than it did on Opening Day. Some teams have gotten off to surprisingly hot starts, while others (like the Baltimore Orioles) have started slower than expected or already find themselves dealing with injuries.
While the playoffs are still months away and most teams have only played about 10% of their schedule so far, several teams have already experienced dramatic swings in their postseason odds. Every game counts, and the ones in April matter just as much as the ones in September.
That’s bad news for the Orioles, who haven’t been playing their best baseball to start the season.
Injuries, questionable offseason moves and bad managing have caused Baltimore to go 6-9 to start the year. Just 18 months after winning the AL East, the Orioles find themselves in last place.
According to FanGraphs, their playoff odds have already dropped 12 percentage points since Opening Day, plummeting from 48.2% to 36.2%. That’s the fourth-largest drop in MLB and the second-biggest dip in the American League behind the Minnesota Twins (-24.1%).
Besides playing in one of the hardest divisions in baseball, the biggest problem plaguing Baltimore is its pitching depth. After losing Corbin Burnes to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the offseason, the Orioles’ pitching staff has already been decimated by injuries to Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and others,
The starters who have stayed healthy (Dean Kremer, Charlie Morton) haven’t pitched well, leaving Baltimore with the worst starting pitcher ERA in baseball (5.30). Meanwhile, the team’s inconsistent offense isn’t providing enough run support to overcome that.
Barring major trades or reinforcements, the Orioles don’t appear to have enough arms to compete this year, especially in a brutal division. Their outlook was already shaky coming into the season, and it’s only gotten worse following injuries to Eflin, Colton Cowser and Albert Suarez.
There’s still a lot of time for Baltimore to turn things around and get back on track, but it needs to stop the bleeding. The deeper this early-season hole gets, the harder it will be to climb out of.